Home > Uncategorized > More Numbers About What Happens After A Caught Stealing Than You Ever Cared To Read

More Numbers About What Happens After A Caught Stealing Than You Ever Cared To Read

It was May 2, and I was watching the Yankees-Tigers game. I wasn’t really watching for any trends, but something caught my eye early. In the top of the first inning, Derek Jeter singled to open the game, but was picked off while Curtis Granderson was at bat. He walked.

In the top of the ninth inning, Granderson started the inning with a walk and was then caught stealing in front of a Mark Teixeira walk.

And that did it for me. I don’t know why, but it seemed to me that this “event” — players reaching base directly after a CS — wasn’t a rare occurrence. I seemed to recall many times this year when a player would get thrown out and it appeared to be a rally-squashing move in hindsight. So I decided to look into it.

Well, not right away. I put it off for almost two weeks, but I finally got down to it tonight and went through each game from this season in which at least one player was either caught straight stealing or picked off, resulting in a caught stealing. Clean pickoffs were excluded. Here’s what I found out:

I was dead wrong.

My recall sucks.

I don’t know what I was thinking.

A player had been caught stealing 292 times this season, entering Friday’s games. Of those 292, 112 runners were caught stealing to end an inning, leaving 180 batters to do something to re-start their team’s offense.  Here are my unofficial stats on what has happened to that batter directly after watching one of his teammates get thrown out.***

They have a .179 batting average with two home runs, five RBIs and 44 strikeouts. Twenty of those hits are singles. Chone Figgins and Paul Konerko have hit the home runs. Danny Espinosa is the only hitter to triple after a CS this year.

On-base percentage: .311

Slugging percentage: .259

The only reasons why that OBP is even close to forgivable are the somewhat surprising 29 walks these hitters have drawn.

Here are some other numbers and facts to consider:

Although he wasn’t counted in this, Coco Crisp was caught stealing home tonight.

4: The number of times a player was caught stealing on April 22, the most to date this season.

31: The total of strikeout-throwout double plays that have been recorded this season. Eighteen of them have ended an inning.

4: Ryan Doumit, Daric Barton, Dustin Pedroia and the D-Backs’ Chris Young were all included in this mission because they were officially caught stealing at some point. But one time, they still made it to their desired base due to an error. Barton and Young received such fortune on the same day, May 10.

8: Juan Pierre has been caught eight times this year, which is double the amount of any other MLB’er. The White Sox are just 20-of-39 in stealing bases this year, worst conversion percentage in the American League. Also, Pierre, Sam Fuld and Chris Denorfia are the only players who have been caught twice in the same game.

5: The number of players who were caught stealing in the Padres-Cubs game at Wrigley Field on April 20. The Padres accounted for four of those. It was the second game of a doubleheader.

On April 10, Oakland’s Josh Willingham and David DeJesus were thrown out in the ninth inning of what would be a 5-3 win over the Twins. They are the only teammates to get thrown out in the same inning this season.

The Astros’ Jason Bourgeois is the only player to get caught stealing to end a game. It happened on April 8 as Bourgeois represented the tying run in a 4-3 contest against the Marlins. But with Joe Inglett up, he took off for second base and was unsuccessful. In Bourgeois defense, it’s not as if Joe Inglett is a homer threat or a doubles machine. He had to do what he could to get into scoring position. Bourgeois, currently on the DL, is 12-for-14 in stealing bases this season.

So what does this prove? For one, I shouldn’t trust my gut if I plan on making assumptions. I apparently like to lie to myself.

Second, hitting directly after a caught stealing this season has basically turned batters into Daric Barton with a little more power.

And third, I really need to find something better to do on a Friday night.

***I say these numbers are unofficial and I harshly stress that. While viewing more than 200 box scores tonight, it’s very, very possible some numbers were miscounted, leading to miscalculations, albeit slight. But hey, this took me more than five hours to complete, so I’m going to present what I have. And the overall point still stands: Hitters after a CS have been abominable in 2011.

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